Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie
Ekstraklasa, Poland · 2026-08-23 · 14:45 CET
LWLLL
LLWLWThe score model makes a Radomiak Radom win the most likely outcome at 41%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). No market here diverges from the data by more than 2 points. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Radomiak Radom 1.45 – 1.26 Zaglebie.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Radomiak Radom win | 40.5% | 39.6% | +0.9% |
| Draw | 27.7% | 28.3% | -0.5% |
| Zaglebie win | 31.8% | 32.1% | -0.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.8% | 50.1% | +0.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.8% | 29.7% | -0.9% |
| Both teams to score | 55.8% | 55.1% | +0.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.9% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.0% | — | — |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Radomiak Radom 44.7 / Zaglebie 43.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
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My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.