GKS Katowice vs Wisla Plock
Ekstraklasa, Poland · 2026-08-23 · 17:30 CET
DDLWL
LDWDLThe score model makes a GKS Katowice win the most likely outcome at 52%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 39%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 2.5 goals — 60.8% vs 43.7% implied (+17.1 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: GKS Katowice 1.46 – 0.80 Wisla Plock.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| GKS Katowice win | 51.6% | 49.1% | +2.5% |
| Draw | 28.8% | 25.6% | +3.2% |
| Wisla Plock win | 19.5% | 25.3% | -5.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 66.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39.2% | 56.3% | -17.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.1% | 35.6% | -16.4% |
| Both teams to score | 43.2% | 58.3% | -15.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.2% | 38.5% | -9.4% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: GKS Katowice 35.8 / Wisla Plock 27.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.