GKS Katowice vs Wisla Plock
Ekstraklasa, Poland · 2026-08-23 · 17:30 CET
WWLLW
LLDWWThe score model made a GKS Katowice win the most likely outcome at 52%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 39%). It finished 5:0 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: GKS Katowice 1.46 – 0.80 Wisla Plock.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GKS Katowice win | 51.6% | 47.8% | +3.9% | ✓ |
| Draw | 28.9% | 25.9% | +3.0% | ✗ |
| Wisla Plock win | 19.5% | 26.4% | -6.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 66.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39.2% | 56.5% | -17.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.2% | 35.6% | -16.5% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 43.3% | 59.0% | -15.7% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.3% | 38.5% | -9.3% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: GKS Katowice 35.6 / Wisla Plock 27.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.