Slask Wroclaw vs Widzew Lodz
Ekstraklasa, Poland · 2026-08-22 · 20:15 CET
DLWDL
WDDWLThe score model makes a Slask Wroclaw win the most likely outcome at 43%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 41%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 2.5 goals — 58.6% vs 47.2% implied (+11.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Slask Wroclaw 1.32 – 1.02 Widzew Lodz.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Slask Wroclaw win | 42.5% | 33.0% | +9.5% |
| Draw | 29.9% | 27.5% | +2.4% |
| Widzew Lodz win | 27.6% | 39.5% | -11.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.4% | 52.8% | -11.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.8% | 32.0% | -11.2% |
| Both teams to score | 47.9% | 57.1% | -9.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 63.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.4% | 35.8% | -9.4% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Slask Wroclaw 22.8 / Widzew Lodz 44.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.