Korona Kielce vs Motor Lublin
Ekstraklasa, Poland · 2026-08-22 · 14:45 CET
WDWLW
DLLLDThe score model made a Korona Kielce win the most likely outcome at 48%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Korona Kielce 1.58 – 1.08 Motor Lublin.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Korona Kielce win | 47.8% | 50.9% | -3.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.2% | 25.8% | +1.4% | ✓ |
| Motor Lublin win | 25.0% | 23.2% | +1.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.6% | 55.4% | -5.8% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.7% | 34.6% | -6.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 53.5% | 56.8% | -3.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.3% | 37.4% | -0.1% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Korona Kielce 43.4 / Motor Lublin 36.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.