S. Rzeszow vs Lechia Gdansk
Division 1, Poland · 2026-10-12 · 18:00 CET
LWWWW
WWLWWThe score model makes a Lechia Gdansk win the most likely outcome at 49%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 67%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Lechia Gdansk win — 49.4% vs 42.8% implied (+6.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: S. Rzeszow 1.46 – 1.99 Lechia Gdansk.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| S. Rzeszow win | 27.5% | 32.1% | -4.6% |
| Draw | 23.1% | 25.1% | -2.0% |
| Lechia Gdansk win | 49.4% | 42.8% | +6.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.9% | 62.4% | +4.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45.2% | 42.0% | +3.2% |
| Both teams to score | 66.9% | 64.3% | +2.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.5% | 42.6% | -4.1% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: S. Rzeszow 45.4 / Lechia Gdansk 13.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.