Odra Opole vs Legnica
Division 1, Poland · 2026-10-11 · 20:15 CET
DDDLL
WWDLLThe score model makes a Legnica win the most likely outcome at 39%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 38%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 2.5 goals — 61.5% vs 46.9% implied (+14.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Odra Opole 1.02 – 1.21 Legnica.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Odra Opole win | 30.0% | 39.4% | -9.4% |
| Draw | 30.8% | 26.8% | +4.0% |
| Legnica win | 39.2% | 33.8% | +5.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 66.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38.5% | 53.1% | -14.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18.6% | 32.9% | -14.3% |
| Both teams to score | 45.8% | 57.6% | -11.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 63.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.3% | 36.2% | -9.9% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Odra Opole 45.4 / Legnica 43.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.