Arka Gdynia vs Polonia Warszawa
Division 1, Poland · 2026-10-10 · 15:30 CET
DDLLL
LLDWWThe score model made an Arka Gdynia win the most likely outcome at 50%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). It finished 1:2 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Arka Gdynia 1.61 – 1.04 Polonia Warszawa.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arka Gdynia win | 50.0% | 41.2% | +8.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.6% | 27.2% | -0.6% | ✗ |
| Polonia Warszawa win | 23.5% | 31.7% | -8.2% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.4% | 52.1% | -2.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.5% | 31.5% | -4.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 52.5% | 56.8% | -4.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.5% | 36.3% | +2.2% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Arka Gdynia 24.8 / Polonia Warszawa 44 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.