Podbeskidzie vs Pogon Siedlce
Division 1, Poland · 2026-10-09 · 20:30 CET
DLDDD
WLWDWThe score model makes a Podbeskidzie win the most likely outcome at 38%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 40%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 80.3% vs 67.1% implied (+13.2 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Podbeskidzie 1.20 – 1.08 Pogon Siedlce.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Podbeskidzie win | 37.6% | 50.2% | -12.6% |
| Draw | 30.5% | 25.8% | +4.7% |
| Pogon Siedlce win | 31.9% | 24.0% | +7.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39.9% | 52.8% | -12.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.7% | 32.9% | -13.2% |
| Both teams to score | 47.2% | 55.3% | -8.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 61.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 24.8% | 36.0% | -11.2% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Podbeskidzie 15.1 / Pogon Siedlce 38.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.