Chrobry Glogow vs Ruch Chorzow
Division 1, Poland · 2026-08-30 · 17:15 CET
LWDDL
WLWDDThe score model made a Chrobry Glogow win the most likely outcome at 36%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 45%). It finished 2:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Chrobry Glogow 1.25 – 1.23 Ruch Chorzow.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chrobry Glogow win | 36.2% | 30.6% | +5.6% | ✓ |
| Draw | 28.5% | 28.1% | +0.5% | ✗ |
| Ruch Chorzow win | 35.2% | 41.3% | -6.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.1% | 49.6% | -4.5% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.8% | 29.5% | -5.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 51.1% | 54.8% | -3.7% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.7% | 34.6% | -0.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Chrobry Glogow 45.8 / Ruch Chorzow 39.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.