Arka Gdynia vs Polonia Bytom
Division 1, Poland · 2026-08-30 · 14:30 CET
LDDLL
DDDDDThe score model made an Arka Gdynia win the most likely outcome at 59%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 63%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Arka Gdynia 2.11 – 1.14 Polonia Bytom.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arka Gdynia win | 59.3% | 51.4% | +7.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 21.5% | 25.3% | -3.8% | ✓ |
| Polonia Bytom win | 19.2% | 23.3% | -4.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.1% | 56.6% | +6.4% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40.9% | 36.2% | +4.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 60.2% | 58.0% | +2.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 81.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 49.1% | 38.8% | +10.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Arka Gdynia 23.1 / Polonia Bytom 26.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.