Polonia Warszawa vs Lechia Gdansk
Division 1, Poland · 2026-08-29 · 15:30 CET
WLLDW
WWLWWThe score model made a Polonia Warszawa win the most likely outcome at 47%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). It finished 2:4 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Polonia Warszawa 1.58 – 1.13 Lechia Gdansk.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polonia Warszawa win | 47.0% | 58.8% | -11.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.3% | 22.0% | +4.3% | ✗ |
| Lechia Gdansk win | 26.6% | 19.1% | +7.5% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.8% | 60.4% | -9.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.7% | 39.6% | -10.8% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 54.4% | 57.8% | -3.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.1% | 42.2% | -10.1% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Polonia Warszawa 43.5 / Lechia Gdansk 10.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.