Pogon Siedlce vs Stal Mielec
Division 1, Poland · 2026-08-29 · 15:30 CET
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LLDLLThe score model made a Stal Mielec win the most likely outcome at 38%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). It finished 2:0 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Pogon Siedlce 1.33 – 1.41 Stal Mielec.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pogon Siedlce win | 34.8% | 32.0% | +2.8% | ✓ |
| Draw | 26.9% | 27.3% | -0.4% | ✗ |
| Stal Mielec win | 38.3% | 40.7% | -2.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.6% | 54.8% | -3.3% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.4% | 34.1% | -4.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 56.2% | 58.8% | -2.6% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.2% | 37.7% | -5.5% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Pogon Siedlce 37.9 / Stal Mielec 26.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.