S. Rzeszow vs Ruch Chorzow
Division 1, Poland · 2026-08-24 · 19:00 CET
DLLDD
LLLDWThe score model makes an Ruch Chorzow win the most likely outcome at 45%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 59%). The data's biggest gap to the market: S. Rzeszow win — 29.6% vs 24.5% implied (+5.1 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: S. Rzeszow 1.36 – 1.72 Ruch Chorzow.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| S. Rzeszow win | 29.6% | 24.5% | +5.1% |
| Draw | 25.1% | 24.6% | +0.6% |
| Ruch Chorzow win | 45.3% | 50.9% | -5.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.3% | 59.1% | +0.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.9% | 38.7% | -1.7% |
| Both teams to score | 61.7% | 60.2% | +1.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.2% | 40.8% | -3.7% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: S. Rzeszow 44.9 / Ruch Chorzow 39.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.