S. Rzeszow vs Ruch Chorzow
Division 1, Poland · 2026-08-24 · 19:00 CET
LWWWW
WLWDDThe score model made a Ruch Chorzow win the most likely outcome at 45%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 59%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: S. Rzeszow 1.36 – 1.72 Ruch Chorzow.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Rzeszow win | 29.7% | 24.6% | +5.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.8% | 24.8% | +0.0% | ✗ |
| Ruch Chorzow win | 45.5% | 50.7% | -5.2% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.5% | 58.5% | +1.0% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.1% | 37.7% | -0.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 61.7% | 59.5% | +2.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.9% | 39.9% | -3.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: S. Rzeszow 44.5 / Ruch Chorzow 39 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.