LKS Lodz vs Stal Mielec
Division 1, Poland · 2026-08-23 · 19:00 CET
WDWLW
WWDDWThe score model makes a LKS Lodz win the most likely outcome at 50%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 66%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Both teams to score — 65.9% vs 58.5% implied (+7.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: LKS Lodz 1.97 – 1.42 Stal Mielec.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| LKS Lodz win | 49.7% | 51.7% | -2.0% |
| Draw | 23.2% | 23.5% | -0.3% |
| Stal Mielec win | 27.1% | 24.8% | +2.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.8% | 58.5% | +7.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43.9% | 37.5% | +6.4% |
| Both teams to score | 65.9% | 58.5% | +7.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 79.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 46.0% | 39.9% | +6.1% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: LKS Lodz 39.4 / Stal Mielec 26.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.