LKS Lodz vs Stal Mielec
Division 1, Poland · 2026-08-23 · 19:00 CET
WDDWL
LLDLLThe score model made an LKS Lodz win the most likely outcome at 50%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 66%). It finished 4:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: LKS Lodz 1.97 – 1.42 Stal Mielec.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LKS Lodz win | 49.9% | 49.0% | +0.9% | ✓ |
| Draw | 23.0% | 25.7% | -2.7% | ✗ |
| Stal Mielec win | 27.1% | 25.3% | +1.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.9% | 54.3% | +11.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44.0% | 33.7% | +10.3% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 65.9% | 56.3% | +9.6% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 79.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 46.0% | 37.8% | +8.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: LKS Lodz 39.1 / Stal Mielec 25.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.