Legnica vs Arka Gdynia
Division 1, Poland · 2026-08-23 · 14:30 CET
WDWLW
WWWLWThe score model makes an Arka Gdynia win the most likely outcome at 46%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Arka Gdynia win — 45.9% vs 32.5% implied (+13.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Legnica 1.05 – 1.47 Arka Gdynia.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Legnica win | 26.2% | 40.6% | -14.4% |
| Draw | 27.9% | 26.9% | +1.0% |
| Arka Gdynia win | 45.9% | 32.5% | +13.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.3% | 56.0% | -9.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.8% | 35.6% | -10.8% |
| Both teams to score | 51.1% | 59.7% | -8.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.0% | 38.4% | +0.6% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Legnica 42.6 / Arka Gdynia 22.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.