Legnica vs Arka Gdynia
Division 1, Poland · 2026-08-23 · 14:30 CET
WWDLL
LDDLLThe score model made an Arka Gdynia win the most likely outcome at 46%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). It finished 2:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Legnica 1.05 – 1.48 Arka Gdynia.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Legnica win | 26.2% | 40.7% | -14.5% | ✓ |
| Draw | 27.6% | 27.0% | +0.7% | ✗ |
| Arka Gdynia win | 46.2% | 32.3% | +13.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.4% | 55.7% | -9.3% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.9% | 35.1% | -10.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 51.0% | 59.5% | -8.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.1% | 38.3% | +0.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Legnica 42.4 / Arka Gdynia 22.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.