Polonia Bytom vs Grodzisk M.
Division 1, Poland · 2026-08-22 · 15:30 CET
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DDWLWThe score model made a Polonia Bytom win the most likely outcome at 42%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 67%). It finished 2:2 (HT 2:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Polonia Bytom 1.81 – 1.63 Grodzisk M..
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polonia Bytom win | 42.0% | 46.4% | -4.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.6% | 25.6% | -2.0% | ✓ |
| Grodzisk M. win | 34.4% | 28.0% | +6.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.8% | 58.1% | +8.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45.0% | 37.6% | +7.4% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 67.8% | 60.2% | +7.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 79.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 45.9% | 39.9% | +6.0% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Polonia Bytom 26 / Grodzisk M. 26.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.