Podbeskidzie vs Odra Opole
Division 1, Poland · 2026-08-22 · 15:30 CET
DLDDD
DDDLLThe score model made a Podbeskidzie win the most likely outcome at 37%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 45%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Podbeskidzie 1.26 – 1.20 Odra Opole.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Podbeskidzie win | 36.9% | 42.6% | -5.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.9% | 27.9% | +1.0% | ✓ |
| Odra Opole win | 34.2% | 29.6% | +4.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.6% | 50.3% | -5.7% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.4% | 30.1% | -6.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 50.9% | 55.0% | -4.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.5% | 35.0% | -4.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Podbeskidzie 11.7 / Odra Opole 44.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.