Stal Mielec vs Polonia Bytom
Division 1, Poland · 2026-08-16 · 17:00 CET
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LLWLDThe score model makes an Polonia Bytom win the most likely outcome at 41%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 73%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Over 3.5 goals — 52.1% vs 39.0% implied (+13.1 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Stal Mielec 1.84 – 1.94 Polonia Bytom.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stal Mielec win | 36.8% | 44.8% | -8.1% |
| Draw | 22.6% | 25.3% | -2.7% |
| Polonia Bytom win | 40.6% | 29.9% | +10.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 89.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 72.7% | 59.7% | +12.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 52.1% | 39.0% | +13.1% |
| Both teams to score | 72.6% | 62.1% | +10.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 80.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 49.0% | 40.8% | +8.2% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Stal Mielec 25.4 / Polonia Bytom 25.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.