Stal Mielec vs Polonia Bytom
Division 1, Poland · 2026-08-16 · 17:00 CET
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DDDDDThe score model made a Polonia Bytom win the most likely outcome at 40%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 73%). It finished 5:2 (HT 2:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Stal Mielec 1.85 – 1.93 Polonia Bytom.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stal Mielec win | 37.0% | 43.1% | -6.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 22.5% | 26.7% | -4.2% | ✗ |
| Polonia Bytom win | 40.4% | 30.2% | +10.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 89.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 72.8% | 56.0% | +16.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 52.3% | 34.9% | +17.4% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 72.6% | 59.5% | +13.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 80.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 49.1% | 38.5% | +10.6% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Stal Mielec 25.3 / Polonia Bytom 25.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.