Pogon Siedlce vs Polonia Warszawa
Division 1, Poland · 2026-08-15 · 15:30 CET
LLDLD
WLWWDThe score model makes an Polonia Warszawa win the most likely outcome at 42%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 42%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 77.0% vs 62.6% implied (+14.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Pogon Siedlce 1.05 – 1.31 Polonia Warszawa.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pogon Siedlce win | 28.7% | 21.1% | +7.6% |
| Draw | 29.6% | 24.9% | +4.7% |
| Polonia Warszawa win | 41.7% | 54.0% | -12.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.0% | 54.4% | -12.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.3% | 33.7% | -12.5% |
| Both teams to score | 48.4% | 55.5% | -7.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 59.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 22.9% | 37.4% | -14.4% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Pogon Siedlce 37 / Polonia Warszawa 42.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.