Pogon Siedlce vs Polonia Warszawa
Division 1, Poland · 2026-08-15 · 15:30 CET
WLWDW
WLLDWThe score model made a Polonia Warszawa win the most likely outcome at 42%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 42%). It finished 1:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Pogon Siedlce 1.05 – 1.31 Polonia Warszawa.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pogon Siedlce win | 28.8% | 21.8% | +7.0% | ✓ |
| Draw | 29.5% | 25.2% | +4.4% | ✗ |
| Polonia Warszawa win | 41.7% | 53.0% | -11.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.0% | 54.1% | -12.1% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.3% | 33.1% | -11.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 48.5% | 55.6% | -7.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 59.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 23.1% | 37.4% | -14.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Pogon Siedlce 36.9 / Polonia Warszawa 42.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.