Chrobry Glogow vs Podbeskidzie
Division 1, Poland · 2026-08-15 · 15:30 CET
LWDDL
DLDDDThe score model made a Chrobry Glogow win the most likely outcome at 50%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Chrobry Glogow 1.71 – 1.15 Podbeskidzie.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chrobry Glogow win | 49.7% | 36.9% | +12.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.6% | 27.8% | -2.2% | ✓ |
| Podbeskidzie win | 24.7% | 35.3% | -10.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.3% | 52.9% | +1.3% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.0% | 32.5% | -0.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 56.6% | 58.0% | -1.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.0% | 36.3% | +2.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Chrobry Glogow 45.2 / Podbeskidzie 10.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.