Chrobry Glogow vs Podbeskidzie
Division 1, Poland · 2026-08-15 · 15:30 CET
DLWLW
LLDDDThe score model makes a Chrobry Glogow win the most likely outcome at 49%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Chrobry Glogow win — 49.2% vs 35.7% implied (+13.5 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Chrobry Glogow 1.68 – 1.14 Podbeskidzie.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chrobry Glogow win | 49.2% | 35.7% | +13.5% |
| Draw | 25.8% | 27.4% | -1.6% |
| Podbeskidzie win | 24.9% | 36.9% | -11.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.6% | 54.4% | -0.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.3% | 33.9% | -2.6% |
| Both teams to score | 56.2% | 58.7% | -2.5% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.5% | 37.1% | +1.4% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Chrobry Glogow 45.5 / Podbeskidzie 11 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.