KFUM Oslo vs Valerenga
Eliteserien, Norway · 2026-10-12 · 19:00 CET
DLLWW
DLDLDThe score model makes a KFUM Oslo win the most likely outcome at 48%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 59%). The data's biggest gap to the market: KFUM Oslo win — 47.7% vs 33.8% implied (+13.9 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: KFUM Oslo 1.75 – 1.32 Valerenga.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| KFUM Oslo win | 47.7% | 33.8% | +13.9% |
| Draw | 23.4% | 25.8% | -2.3% |
| Valerenga win | 28.8% | 40.4% | -11.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.2% | 61.0% | -1.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.8% | 40.3% | -3.5% |
| Both teams to score | 60.5% | 63.8% | -3.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 80.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 45.7% | 41.6% | +4.2% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: KFUM Oslo 37 / Valerenga 34 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.