Start vs KFUM Oslo
Eliteserien, Norway · 2026-08-30 · 17:00 CET
LWLWL
DLLWWThe score model made a KFUM Oslo win the most likely outcome at 43%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). It finished 4:1 (HT 2:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Start 1.15 – 1.38 KFUM Oslo.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Start win | 31.7% | 45.1% | -13.4% | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.6% | 26.9% | -1.4% | ✗ |
| KFUM Oslo win | 42.7% | 28.0% | +14.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.2% | 53.0% | -6.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.8% | 32.1% | -7.3% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 50.5% | 57.0% | -6.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.1% | 36.4% | -0.3% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Start 14.1 / KFUM Oslo 35.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.