Sandefjord vs Brann
Eliteserien, Norway · 2026-08-30 · 17:00 CET
WDDLW
WDLLWThe score model made a Brann win the most likely outcome at 40%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 59%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sandefjord 1.51 – 1.56 Brann.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sandefjord win | 37.4% | 30.1% | +7.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.1% | 24.5% | -1.4% | ✓ |
| Brann win | 39.5% | 45.3% | -5.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.1% | 64.6% | -5.6% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.7% | 44.6% | -8.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 60.9% | 65.7% | -4.8% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.1% | 44.1% | -6.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Sandefjord 40 / Brann 38.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.