Lillestrom vs Fredrikstad
Eliteserien, Norway · 2026-08-30 · 19:15 CET
DLWWL
WWLDDThe score model made a Lillestrom win the most likely outcome at 45%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 42%). It finished 1:4 (HT 1:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Lillestrom 1.33 – 1.01 Fredrikstad.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lillestrom win | 44.5% | 53.4% | -8.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.5% | 25.4% | +1.1% | ✗ |
| Fredrikstad win | 29.0% | 21.2% | +7.8% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.6% | 53.6% | -11.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.0% | 32.7% | -11.7% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 46.4% | 54.5% | -8.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.4% | 36.5% | -9.1% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Lillestrom 25.6 / Fredrikstad 35.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.