Bodo/Glimt vs Rosenborg
Eliteserien, Norway · 2026-08-30 · 14:30 CET
WWWWL
WLWWWThe score model made a Bodo/Glimt win the most likely outcome at 74%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 68%). It finished 4:2 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Bodo/Glimt 2.58 – 0.90 Rosenborg.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bodo/Glimt win | 73.8% | 69.7% | +4.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 15.0% | 17.1% | -2.0% | ✗ |
| Rosenborg win | 11.2% | 13.2% | -2.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.6% | 70.7% | -3.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46.0% | 50.9% | -4.9% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 54.6% | 60.6% | -5.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 83.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 50.1% | 49.3% | +0.7% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Bodo/Glimt 39.9 / Rosenborg 39.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.