Valerenga vs Molde
Eliteserien, Norway · 2026-08-30 · 17:00 CET
DLDLD
WWWWLThe score model made a Molde win the most likely outcome at 43%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 70%). It finished 3:4 (HT 3:4) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Valerenga 1.72 – 1.90 Molde.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valerenga win | 35.8% | 34.3% | +1.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 21.1% | 23.8% | -2.7% | ✗ |
| Molde win | 43.1% | 41.9% | +1.2% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70.0% | 70.9% | -0.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 48.8% | 51.5% | -2.7% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 69.3% | 71.1% | -1.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 83.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 49.7% | 49.2% | +0.5% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Valerenga 32.7 / Molde 39.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.