Sarpsborg 08 vs Sandefjord
Eliteserien, Norway · 2026-08-16 · 17:00 CET
WDWDL
DLLLLThe score model makes a Sarpsborg 08 win the most likely outcome at 48%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 68.3% vs 57.4% implied (+10.9 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sarpsborg 08 1.64 – 1.20 Sandefjord.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sarpsborg 08 win | 48.1% | 51.7% | -3.6% |
| Draw | 23.4% | 24.1% | -0.7% |
| Sandefjord win | 28.5% | 24.2% | +4.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.0% | 62.8% | -8.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.7% | 42.6% | -10.9% |
| Both teams to score | 55.9% | 63.2% | -7.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.8% | 42.9% | -2.1% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Sarpsborg 08 40.2 / Sandefjord 40.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.