Sarpsborg 08 vs Sandefjord
Eliteserien, Norway · 2026-08-16 · 17:00 CET
LDDDL
WDDLWThe score model made a Sarpsborg 08 win the most likely outcome at 48%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). It finished 1:2 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sarpsborg 08 1.64 – 1.20 Sandefjord.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarpsborg 08 win | 48.1% | 52.7% | -4.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.5% | 23.9% | -0.3% | ✗ |
| Sandefjord win | 28.4% | 23.4% | +5.0% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.1% | 63.1% | -9.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.8% | 42.6% | -10.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 56.0% | 62.9% | -6.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.9% | 42.8% | -1.9% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Sarpsborg 08 40.1 / Sandefjord 40.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.