Molde vs Tromso
Eliteserien, Norway · 2026-08-16 · 17:00 CET
WWWWL
LDLLWThe score model made a Molde win the most likely outcome at 46%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 57%). It finished 3:2 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Molde 1.67 – 1.30 Tromso.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Molde win | 46.5% | 45.5% | +1.0% | ✓ |
| Draw | 23.2% | 25.6% | -2.5% | ✗ |
| Tromso win | 30.3% | 28.9% | +1.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.1% | 58.2% | -1.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.7% | 36.9% | -2.3% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 58.7% | 60.8% | -2.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.9% | 39.7% | -3.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Molde 39.9 / Tromso 39.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.