Molde vs Tromso
Eliteserien, Norway · 2026-08-16 · 17:00 CET
DLWDL
DDWWWThe score model makes a Molde win the most likely outcome at 47%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 57%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Molde win — 46.5% vs 41.7% implied (+4.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Molde 1.67 – 1.30 Tromso.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Molde win | 46.5% | 41.7% | +4.8% |
| Draw | 23.1% | 26.3% | -3.3% |
| Tromso win | 30.4% | 32.0% | -1.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.0% | 56.2% | +0.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.6% | 35.5% | -0.9% |
| Both teams to score | 58.6% | 59.5% | -0.9% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.9% | 38.4% | -2.5% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Molde 40.1 / Tromso 39.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
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My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.