Fredrikstad vs Kristiansund
Eliteserien, Norway · 2026-08-16 · 19:15 CET
WWLDD
LDWLLThe score model made a Fredrikstad win the most likely outcome at 54%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 42%). It finished 1:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Fredrikstad 1.52 – 0.83 Kristiansund.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fredrikstad win | 54.0% | 50.0% | +4.0% | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.0% | 25.9% | -0.9% | ✗ |
| Kristiansund win | 20.9% | 24.1% | -3.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.9% | 53.8% | -11.9% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.2% | 33.1% | -11.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 43.8% | 56.1% | -12.3% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.2% | 36.8% | -8.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Fredrikstad 35.5 / Kristiansund 36.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.