Brann vs HamKam
Eliteserien, Norway · 2026-08-16 · 17:00 CET
LWWLW
LLLWDThe score model makes a Brann win the most likely outcome at 62%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 66%). No market here diverges from the data by more than 2 points. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Brann 2.23 – 1.14 HamKam.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brann win | 62.3% | 60.4% | +1.9% |
| Draw | 18.8% | 21.9% | -3.0% |
| HamKam win | 18.8% | 17.7% | +1.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.5% | 64.4% | +1.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43.6% | 43.9% | -0.3% |
| Both teams to score | 60.5% | 60.5% | -0.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 42.3% | 44.0% | -1.7% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Brann 39 / HamKam 40.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
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My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.