Brann vs HamKam
Eliteserien, Norway · 2026-08-16 · 17:00 CET
WDLLW
LDLLLThe score model made a Brann win the most likely outcome at 62%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 66%). It finished 3:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Brann 2.23 – 1.14 HamKam.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brann win | 62.4% | 59.8% | +2.6% | ✓ |
| Draw | 18.9% | 22.4% | -3.5% | ✗ |
| HamKam win | 18.7% | 17.8% | +0.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.6% | 62.3% | +3.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43.7% | 41.7% | +2.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 60.5% | 59.4% | +1.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 42.4% | 42.7% | -0.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Brann 38.9 / HamKam 40.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.