Aalesund vs Valerenga
Eliteserien, Norway · 2026-08-16 · 14:30 CET
DLDLD
LWWLLThe score model makes an Valerenga win the most likely outcome at 44%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 70%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 56.0% vs 53.3% implied (+2.7 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Aalesund 1.69 – 1.90 Valerenga.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aalesund win | 35.3% | 34.4% | +0.9% |
| Draw | 21.1% | 24.6% | -3.5% |
| Valerenga win | 43.6% | 41.0% | +2.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69.5% | 67.8% | +1.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 48.2% | 48.0% | +0.2% |
| Both teams to score | 69.0% | 68.5% | +0.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 79.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 44.0% | 46.7% | -2.7% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Aalesund 18.2 / Valerenga 32.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.