Aalesund vs Valerenga
Eliteserien, Norway · 2026-08-16 · 14:30 CET
DLWLW
DLDLDThe score model made a Valerenga win the most likely outcome at 43%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 70%). It finished 5:5 (HT 4:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Aalesund 1.69 – 1.89 Valerenga.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aalesund win | 35.3% | 35.7% | -0.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 21.2% | 24.8% | -3.6% | ✓ |
| Valerenga win | 43.5% | 39.5% | +4.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69.5% | 67.1% | +2.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 48.2% | 47.5% | +0.7% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 69.0% | 68.4% | +0.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 79.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 44.0% | 46.4% | -2.4% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Aalesund 18.1 / Valerenga 32.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.