KFUM Oslo vs Lillestrom
Eliteserien, Norway · 2026-08-15 · 16:00 CET
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WWLLLThe score model makes a KFUM Oslo win the most likely outcome at 46%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 75.4% vs 63.2% implied (+12.2 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: KFUM Oslo 1.44 – 1.08 Lillestrom.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| KFUM Oslo win | 45.8% | 35.3% | +10.5% |
| Draw | 25.3% | 26.7% | -1.4% |
| Lillestrom win | 28.9% | 38.0% | -9.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.1% | 57.6% | -11.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.6% | 36.8% | -12.2% |
| Both teams to score | 49.8% | 61.2% | -11.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.5% | 39.2% | -7.8% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: KFUM Oslo 35.8 / Lillestrom 25.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.