KFUM Oslo vs Lillestrom
Eliteserien, Norway · 2026-08-15 · 16:00 CET
DLLWW
DLWWLThe score model made a KFUM Oslo win the most likely outcome at 46%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: KFUM Oslo 1.44 – 1.08 Lillestrom.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KFUM Oslo win | 45.8% | 32.1% | +13.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.3% | 26.6% | -1.3% | ✓ |
| Lillestrom win | 28.9% | 41.3% | -12.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.2% | 57.0% | -10.9% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.7% | 36.3% | -11.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 49.9% | 60.9% | -11.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.6% | 38.9% | -7.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: KFUM Oslo 35.6 / Lillestrom 25.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.