Raalte vs Katwijk
Tweede Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-11-14 · 15:00 CET
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LLLWLThe score model makes a Katwijk win the most likely outcome at 58%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 60%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 65.2% vs 54.3% implied (+10.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Raalte 1.12 – 1.99 Katwijk.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raalte win | 20.9% | 18.5% | +2.4% |
| Draw | 21.3% | 20.8% | +0.5% |
| Katwijk win | 57.8% | 60.7% | -2.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.0% | 65.3% | -5.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.7% | 45.8% | -8.1% |
| Both teams to score | 58.0% | 61.5% | -3.5% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.8% | 45.7% | -10.8% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Raalte 10.9 / Katwijk 45.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Raalte vs Katwijk in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.