IJsselmeervogels vs Barendrecht
Tweede Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-11-14 · 15:00 CET
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WLWWLThe score model makes an IJsselmeervogels win the most likely outcome at 44%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 56%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 66.7% vs 53.8% implied (+12.9 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: IJsselmeervogels 1.60 – 1.31 Barendrecht.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| IJsselmeervogels win | 44.3% | 56.9% | -12.6% |
| Draw | 24.2% | 21.5% | +2.7% |
| Barendrecht win | 31.5% | 21.6% | +10.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.7% | 66.2% | -10.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.3% | 46.2% | -12.9% |
| Both teams to score | 58.2% | 63.6% | -5.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.2% | 46.1% | -8.9% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: IJsselmeervogels 32.2 / Barendrecht 39.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open IJsselmeervogels vs Barendrecht in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.