Hardenberg vs RKAV Volendam
Tweede Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-11-14 · 14:30 CET
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LWWWWThe score model makes a Hardenberg win the most likely outcome at 50%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 63%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 60.7% vs 55.8% implied (+4.9 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Hardenberg 1.89 – 1.37 RKAV Volendam.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hardenberg win | 49.9% | 53.1% | -3.2% |
| Draw | 22.2% | 23.1% | -0.9% |
| RKAV Volendam win | 28.0% | 23.8% | +4.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.2% | 64.2% | -1.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41.1% | 43.9% | -2.8% |
| Both teams to score | 63.2% | 63.9% | -0.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.3% | 44.2% | -4.9% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Hardenberg 45.5 / RKAV Volendam 39.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Hardenberg vs RKAV Volendam in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.