GVVV vs Spakenburg
Tweede Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-11-14 · 14:30 CET
WWLWW
WLDLWThe score model makes a GVVV win the most likely outcome at 40%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 63%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 59.2% vs 50.3% implied (+8.9 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: GVVV 1.66 – 1.58 Spakenburg.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| GVVV win | 40.2% | 33.2% | +7.0% |
| Draw | 23.0% | 23.1% | -0.1% |
| Spakenburg win | 36.9% | 43.7% | -6.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.0% | 68.2% | -5.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40.8% | 49.7% | -8.9% |
| Both teams to score | 64.3% | 69.2% | -4.9% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 42.8% | 48.6% | -5.8% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: GVVV 44.8 / Spakenburg 45.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open GVVV vs Spakenburg in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.