AFC vs De Treffers
Tweede Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-11-14 · 15:15 CET
LWLLD
LWWDLThe score model makes a De Treffers win the most likely outcome at 43%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 56%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 66.3% vs 55.2% implied (+11.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: AFC 1.36 – 1.57 De Treffers.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| AFC win | 33.1% | 23.7% | +9.4% |
| Draw | 24.2% | 23.0% | +1.2% |
| De Treffers win | 42.7% | 53.3% | -10.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.1% | 64.2% | -8.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.7% | 44.8% | -11.0% |
| Both teams to score | 58.7% | 63.8% | -5.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.7% | 44.6% | -6.9% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: AFC 45.4 / De Treffers 45.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open AFC vs De Treffers in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.