Kloetinge vs Hoek
Tweede Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-11-13 · 19:00 CET
LDLLL
WLDLLThe score model makes a Hoek win the most likely outcome at 54%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 68.2% vs 55.1% implied (+13.1 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kloetinge 1.08 – 1.77 Hoek.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kloetinge win | 23.1% | 26.5% | -3.4% |
| Draw | 23.2% | 23.4% | -0.3% |
| Hoek win | 53.8% | 50.1% | +3.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.1% | 64.9% | -10.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.8% | 44.9% | -13.1% |
| Both teams to score | 54.5% | 65.3% | -10.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.6% | 45.0% | -7.4% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Kloetinge 10.9 / Hoek 29.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Kloetinge vs Hoek in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.