Quick Boys vs Katwijk
Tweede Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-10-10 · 13:30 CET
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DLWLLThe score model made a Quick Boys win the most likely outcome at 61%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 61%). It finished 6:0 (HT 3:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Quick Boys 2.10 – 1.08 Katwijk.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quick Boys win | 60.7% | 57.6% | +3.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 20.6% | 22.2% | -1.6% | ✗ |
| Katwijk win | 18.6% | 20.2% | -1.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.5% | 63.7% | -2.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39.2% | 43.5% | -4.4% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 57.9% | 61.1% | -3.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 79.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 44.9% | 43.8% | +1.1% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Quick Boys 44.7 / Katwijk 44.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.