Kozakken Boys vs Spakenburg
Tweede Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-10-10 · 15:00 CET
WWDWW
WDLWLThe score model made a Spakenburg win the most likely outcome at 42%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 66%). It finished 2:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kozakken Boys 1.63 – 1.79 Spakenburg.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kozakken Boys win | 35.4% | 44.6% | -9.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 22.7% | 22.8% | -0.1% | ✗ |
| Spakenburg win | 42.0% | 32.7% | +9.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.3% | 66.1% | +0.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44.5% | 47.6% | -3.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 67.0% | 67.9% | -0.9% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.2% | 46.4% | -7.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Kozakken Boys 34.6 / Spakenburg 44.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.