Jong Sparta Rotterdam vs Jong Almere City
Tweede Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-10-10 · 15:00 CET
DDWLL
LDLWWThe score model made a Jong Sparta Rotterdam win the most likely outcome at 41%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 86%). It finished 1:4 (HT 0:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Jong Sparta Rotterdam 2.45 – 2.41 Jong Almere City.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jong Sparta Rotterdam win | 41.3% | 51.2% | -9.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 18.7% | 21.0% | -2.3% | ✗ |
| Jong Almere City win | 40.0% | 27.8% | +12.2% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 95.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 86.4% | 74.4% | +12.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 71.6% | 57.1% | +14.5% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 83.3% | 72.5% | +10.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 89.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 62.5% | 53.2% | +9.2% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Jong Sparta Rotterdam 46.3 / Jong Almere City 42.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.