De Treffers vs Barendrecht
Tweede Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-10-10 · 18:00 CET
DWWLW
DDWWLThe score model made a De Treffers win the most likely outcome at 64%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 76%). It finished 4:0 (HT 3:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: De Treffers 2.60 – 1.36 Barendrecht.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| De Treffers win | 64.1% | 67.4% | -3.3% | ✓ |
| Draw | 17.6% | 17.9% | -0.3% | ✗ |
| Barendrecht win | 18.3% | 14.7% | +3.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 90.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75.6% | 70.3% | +5.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 55.9% | 51.1% | +4.8% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 68.8% | 61.9% | +7.0% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 81.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 48.4% | 49.5% | -1.0% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: De Treffers 44.8 / Barendrecht 37.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.