AFC vs Hoek
Tweede Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-10-10 · 15:15 CET
DWLLW
DDLWLThe score model made a Hoek win the most likely outcome at 40%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). It finished 2:0 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: AFC 1.27 – 1.40 Hoek.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC win | 34.1% | 33.8% | +0.3% | ✓ |
| Draw | 26.1% | 25.3% | +0.8% | ✗ |
| Hoek win | 39.8% | 41.0% | -1.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.9% | 58.4% | -8.5% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.9% | 37.7% | -9.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 54.3% | 62.3% | -8.0% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.7% | 40.5% | -7.8% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: AFC 44.6 / Hoek 27.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.