G.A. Eagles vs Sparta Rotterdam
Eredivisie, Netherlands · 2026-10-10 · 16:30 CET
WLDDD
DLDLLThe score model makes a G.A. Eagles win the most likely outcome at 53%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 59%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 68.6% vs 54.0% implied (+14.7 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: G.A. Eagles 1.87 – 1.18 Sparta Rotterdam.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| G.A. Eagles win | 52.5% | 53.0% | -0.5% |
| Draw | 24.7% | 23.6% | +1.1% |
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 22.8% | 23.4% | -0.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.9% | 67.1% | -8.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.5% | 47.0% | -10.5% |
| Both teams to score | 59.7% | 66.0% | -6.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.4% | 46.0% | -14.7% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: G.A. Eagles 44.1 / Sparta Rotterdam 44 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.