Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar
Eredivisie, Netherlands · 2026-10-10 · 18:45 CET
WWDDL
LDLLWThe score model made a Feyenoord win the most likely outcome at 55%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 63%). It finished 2:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Feyenoord 2.03 – 1.21 AZ Alkmaar.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord win | 55.3% | 55.0% | +0.3% | ✓ |
| Draw | 23.3% | 22.8% | +0.5% | ✗ |
| AZ Alkmaar win | 21.4% | 22.2% | -0.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.0% | 67.4% | -4.4% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40.8% | 47.8% | -7.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 62.1% | 66.4% | -4.3% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 46.2% | 46.8% | -0.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Feyenoord 43.7 / AZ Alkmaar 43.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.