Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar
Eredivisie, Netherlands · 2026-10-10 · 18:45 CET
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WWWDWThe score model makes a Feyenoord win the most likely outcome at 55%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 63%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 59.4% vs 52.8% implied (+6.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Feyenoord 2.03 – 1.21 AZ Alkmaar.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord win | 55.3% | 51.7% | +3.6% |
| Draw | 23.3% | 24.0% | -0.7% |
| AZ Alkmaar win | 21.4% | 24.3% | -2.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.8% | 66.9% | -4.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40.6% | 47.2% | -6.6% |
| Both teams to score | 62.0% | 65.9% | -4.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 46.2% | 46.5% | -0.4% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Feyenoord 44.2 / AZ Alkmaar 44.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.