PSV vs Heerenveen
Eredivisie, Netherlands · 2026-10-09 · 20:00 CET
WWWWL
LDLDWThe score model makes a PSV win the most likely outcome at 79%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 82%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT over 1.5 goals — 62.9% vs 58.6% implied (+4.2 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: PSV 3.33 – 1.13 Heerenveen.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| PSV win | 78.7% | 75.9% | +2.8% |
| Draw | 12.7% | 13.5% | -0.8% |
| Heerenveen win | 8.6% | 10.6% | -2.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 94.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 82.2% | 80.9% | +1.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 65.1% | 64.9% | +0.3% |
| Both teams to score | 65.8% | 66.2% | -0.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 87.9% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 62.9% | 58.6% | +4.2% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: PSV 44.1 / Heerenveen 44.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.