Willem II vs Heerenveen
Eredivisie, Netherlands · 2026-08-30 · 14:30 CET
DLDLL
LDLDWThe score model made a Heerenveen win the most likely outcome at 43%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). It finished 2:2 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Willem II 1.21 – 1.50 Heerenveen.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willem II win | 29.5% | 24.2% | +5.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.8% | 22.6% | +5.1% | ✓ |
| Heerenveen win | 42.7% | 53.2% | -10.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.0% | 65.5% | -14.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.9% | 44.8% | -15.9% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 55.8% | 64.8% | -9.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.1% | 44.9% | -9.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Willem II 16.9 / Heerenveen 44.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.