AZ Alkmaar vs G.A. Eagles
Eredivisie, Netherlands · 2026-08-29 · 18:45 CET
WWWDW
WLDDDThe score model made an AZ Alkmaar win the most likely outcome at 54%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 60%). It finished 5:2 (HT 2:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: AZ Alkmaar 1.93 – 1.18 G.A. Eagles.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar win | 54.0% | 69.4% | -15.4% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.1% | 17.5% | +6.6% | ✗ |
| G.A. Eagles win | 22.0% | 13.1% | +8.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.1% | 70.2% | -10.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.7% | 50.0% | -12.3% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 60.2% | 60.8% | -0.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 43.8% | 48.1% | -4.3% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: AZ Alkmaar 43.6 / G.A. Eagles 43.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.