AZ Alkmaar vs G.A. Eagles
Eredivisie, Netherlands · 2026-08-29 · 18:45 CET
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LLWDWThe score model makes a AZ Alkmaar win the most likely outcome at 54%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 60%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 62.3% vs 51.4% implied (+10.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: AZ Alkmaar 1.93 – 1.17 G.A. Eagles.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar win | 54.1% | 68.5% | -14.4% |
| Draw | 24.0% | 17.9% | +6.1% |
| G.A. Eagles win | 21.9% | 13.6% | +8.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.1% | 68.5% | -8.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.7% | 48.6% | -10.8% |
| Both teams to score | 60.1% | 59.8% | +0.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 43.9% | 47.1% | -3.2% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: AZ Alkmaar 44.1 / G.A. Eagles 44 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.