Groningen vs Sittard
Eredivisie, Netherlands · 2026-08-28 · 20:00 CET
WLWWL
WLDWLThe score model makes a Groningen win the most likely outcome at 50%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 69.9% vs 55.2% implied (+14.7 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Groningen 1.68 – 1.09 Sittard.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Groningen win | 50.0% | 63.6% | -13.7% |
| Draw | 26.4% | 19.9% | +6.5% |
| Sittard win | 23.6% | 16.5% | +7.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.3% | 65.3% | -13.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.1% | 44.8% | -14.7% |
| Both teams to score | 55.1% | 60.0% | -4.9% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.9% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.9% | 45.1% | -8.2% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Groningen 39.3 / Sittard 44 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.