Eindhoven FC vs Waalwijk
Eerste Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-11-21 · 16:30 CET
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DDLDWThe score model makes a Waalwijk win the most likely outcome at 51%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 58%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 64.6% vs 57.6% implied (+7.1 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Eindhoven FC 1.21 – 1.79 Waalwijk.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eindhoven FC win | 25.9% | 24.3% | +1.6% |
| Draw | 23.0% | 23.6% | -0.6% |
| Waalwijk win | 51.1% | 52.1% | -1.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.8% | 61.9% | -4.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.4% | 42.4% | -7.1% |
| Both teams to score | 58.4% | 61.9% | -3.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.7% | 43.1% | -2.4% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Eindhoven FC 51.4 / Waalwijk 34.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Eindhoven FC vs Waalwijk in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.